James Dean and Marlon Brando catapulted to fame on the silver screen playing the rebel or goodhearted bad boy. It works on the silver screen with good acting, directing, and scripts to manufacture a glorious ending for the renegade. In real life, well, most times it’s a different story, but don’t tell your typical Trump fan too beguiled to face unwelcome news. Not only is Trump a bad boy; he’s bad news. The unpalatable evidence is piling daily. This time, it comes from Trump’s own pollster, Tony Fabrizio.
In a Fabrizio poll for the Wall Street Journal, DeSantis does better in a head-to-head matchup with Biden than Trump (see below). DeSantis is up 3 while Trump is down 3. Surely, all within the margin of error but still indicative of a trend that can only get better for DeSantis and worse for Trump.
Trump has hefty baggage that’ll only get heavier, and DeSantis is coming off a 19-point victory in a bellwether state. Trump is a known quantity of repulsiveness, legal troubles, and rabid loyalty from a limited base. DeSantis has the advantage of being the fresh face on the scene with major achievements in the third largest state. DeSantis has a huge upside as a general election campaign proceeds, much like Reagan in 1980. Trump has the stench of Hoover in 1932, but without Hoover’s moral uprightness.
Trump’s stench won’t go away. Despite the double-digit lead over DeSantis in a face-off in a cloistered Republican primary, Trump’s likeability with the general electorate is atrocious. His unfavorables/favorables are slightly worse than Biden’s, in the same doghouse where they’ve been for most of his time in the public eye (see below). Rightly or wrongly, there’s too much of the appalling Trump on tape to fill the multimillion-dollar ad buys by the Democrats’ stable of c-suite billionaires. The Trump schtick is for groupies, not for people raising kids. As for DeSantis, it’s an entirely different story.
Think of it this way: after the celebrations, confetti, and rousing cheers of Trump victories in the Republican primaries, his boosters will joyously march off to . . . the Alamo. Bad boys sometimes lead others into massacres.
RogerG
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* “Trump’s Pollster Finds DeSantis Leading Biden and Biden Leading Trump”, John McCormack, National Review Online, 4/21/2023, at https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/trumps-pollster-finds-desantis-leading-biden-and-biden-leading-trump/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=featured-content-trending&utm_term=first
* “Latest Polls”, FiveThirtyEight, 3/21/2023, at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/ron-desantis/. From here, you can toggle over to the other major candidates in the field.