The people running the state of California have issued a ban on the sale of new gas-powered cars, minivans, SUV’s, and pickups by 2035. A centrally planned edict, with little sound reasoning, will descend upon everyone in the state. Of course, the commissars’ dream is to force the lunacy on the entire country. The irony is that California is losing population at a rapid pace – over a quarter million from 2020 to 2021 alone – but the kulturkampf crackpots ruling the state fantasize that the state’s weight of population will force upon the whole country the lifestyle preferences of the California coastal plain. I hope not. In the meantime, Californios, get out while you still can.
If you’re the owner of a business or a person planning to make a huge investment in a home, a car, retiring, or settling your kids into one of the many schools in the state, you might be making one of the biggest mistakes in your life. California is no place to make life-shaping commitments. Millions already got a whiff and fled over the past number of decades. A decline in the rate of increase in previous decades has been replaced by an absolute reduction. 39.5 million became 39.2 million from July 2020 to June 2021. The same people that think they can dictate their lifestyle preferences to the nation are the same ones who can’t keep their people.
Their justification for imposing their choices gets weaker with each passing year. California must be stopped from dictating to the rest of the nation. They get away with this by throwing their demographic weight around which intimidates the Fortune 500. A ban on the sale of conventional cars in cuckoo land, it is hoped, will soon have Topeka and Wichita dealerships flooding Kansas with ev’s against the wishes of the sunflower state’s consumers. That’s the hope of Sacramento’s potentates. But watch the dream get dashed by a lack of appreciation for unintended consequences, which is a persistent blind spot for this breed of power-hungry zealot.
That’s right, they pretend that the unintended consequences are fabrications of “deniers” at the same time that the “fabrications” come crashing into the quality of life. Unintended consequences are either a product of child-like naivete or the belief that the economic law of tradeoffs can be dismissed with a wave of the hand. The central planners’ assault on living standards will happen nonetheless. There is no future in boarded up gas stations and skyrocketing fuel and utility rates. An already decrepit grid teetering into chronic blackouts will be expected to power the state’s new fleet of personal transportation by fiat. Get real. No smothering of the state in a widening blanket of windmills and solar panels can turn intermittent into non-intermittent. Money subtracted from grid maintenance shows up in the massive expansion of “renewables” (tradeoffs), turning the dilapidating grid into a gargantuan arsonist of cataclysmic wildfires. The fires aren’t due to climate change but are the unintended consequence of people obsessed with climate change.
There’s more. Going back to those abandoned gas stations, the price of fuel will rise as it becomes harder to get because the market is forcibly shrunk by government dictat. For the diesel heavy vehicles and equipment, their fueling costs will skyrocket since the fuel market dwindled to cover only them. Truck stops are rarer.
The immense total societal investment of over a century in personal conveyances will have been wiped out virtually overnight. In its place will come disposable cars, thrown away because the heart of them, the batteries, is no longer composed of moving parts. The great and proven reservoir of human capital (experience, skills, and knowledge) in mechanics will no longer have a place in this new way of life, having been made useless not by the voluntary choices of people in a free market but by edicts of an activist nomenklatura.
Scrap yards, fields, or overgrown back lots will fill up with the things, scavenged for the few things sellable. If the track record of recycling is any clue, subsidies for the recycling of the batteries will be required. All government subsidies are a replay of the student loan forgiveness scam. One group gets a benefit at the expense of another. I don’t care how it’s configured. If a benefit flowed to one group (recyclers) by government command, it must be shaken from the consumer or taxpayer at the end of the day. Any burden on the manufacturer is a pass-through down to the buyer.
The huge battery packs for the bliss of all-electric will come from the ChiComs, unstable and unfriendly Third World kleptocracies, or domestic oligarchs like US RareEarth. I have yet to see an eco-activist with a love of mining, especially of the open pit variety. Where will the rare earths (lithium, gallium, hafnium, zirconium) and magnets come from? The enthusiasts don’t have a clue. They just have faith in a “market” that they detest. The grand viziers dictate and people must bow to suit. The only innovations are those contrived to fit the commands. They aren’t a product of liberty, for they are a product of kowtowing to the state. Few in their right mind would stake a trip to the emergency room on a vehicle that doesn’t perform well in a blackout. The contraption works best if you don’t live far from the emergency room, and, better yet, if you’re a block away and can quickly push the wheelchair that far.
Pray to God that the ambulances aren’t electric. If they are, you’re screwed in a blackout, and doubly so if they’ve had a number of runs that night. The station house might have a generator but it relies on the same fossil fuel from the same rapidly disappearing fuel supply. All in all, you’re still screwed.
An all-electric future is no nirvana. Even so, they tell us, we’ll benefit from saving the planet. Will we? How are 39.2 million souls, and falling, going to counteract the voracious energy appetite of 2.82 billion? India and Red China have no qualms about burning coal, even our coal. They love jobs and air conditioning too. Get this straight: we are expected to believe that 1.4% of the population of India and Red China will save the planet. Uh?
My greatest sympathy goes to the rest of the state east of the Coast Range. Crossing the Coast Range west to east is departing one cultural entity and entering another. California is two states: the nearly 27 million west along the coastal plain has Sandinista sympathies and the 12 million remainder to the east would hang Sandinistas. It’s a schizophrenic state with the largest portion of the state’s brain psychotic. The diseased two-thirds overwhelms the sensible third. If the analogy was perfect, the healthy cells would seek an escape to a healthier body, which many are doing at a fast clip. They can jettison the state since we have a US Constitution which makes us citizens of the USA and merely residents of a state. We have the right to travel.
So, travel. Get out while you still can.
RogerG
Sources:
* “California to ban sale of all new gasoline-powered cars starting in 2035, a “historic turning point”, The Mercury News, August 27, 2022, at https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/08/24/california-to-ban-sale-of-all-new-gasoline-powered-cars-starting-in-2035-a-historic-turning-point/?utm_email=7532E23EB4C725A2B431242632&g2i_eui=4hjus%2bKiCR9WZhjuKq1urjE8uS5QtgSd&g2i_source=newsletter&lctg=7532E23EB4C725A2B431242632&active=no&utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.mercurynews.com%2f2022%2f08%2f24%2fcalifornia-to-ban-sale-of-all-new-gasoline-powered-cars-starting-in-2035-a-historic-turning-point%2f&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-weekend-morning-report-nl&utm_content=manual
* “Editorial: Yes! California just banned the sale of new gas cars. This is a big deal”, LA Times, August 26, 2022, at https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-08-26/california-gas-car-ban-zero-emission
* “A New Demographic Surprise for California: Population Loss”, NY Times, May, 7, 2021, at https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/us/california-population-loss.html
* “These 10 maps explain California’s changing population: The state lost more than a quarter-million residents during the first year of the pandemic, but some counties grew and shrank for different reasons”, The Mercury News, April 4, 2022, at https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/04/04/these-10-maps-explain-californias-changing-population/
* “US Needs 10X More Rare Earth Metals To Hit Biden’s Electric Vehicle Goals”, Forbes, Sept. 29, 2021, at https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2021/09/29/us-needs-10x-more-rare-earth-metals-to-hit-bidens-electric-vehicle-goals/?sh=70e13a093e41
* The east/west breakdown of California’s population in “Economics and Demographics”, NOAA, Office for Coastal Management, at https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/economics-and-demographics.html#:~:text=California%20tops%20the%20coastal%20populations%20chart%20with%2026.7,6.8%20million.%205%20461%20People%20per%20Square%20Mile