Foreign Relations – Libertate Virtute (Virtue + Liberty)

April 20, 2024

It Makes No Sense

Ukrainian strike — Emergency personnel work at the site where an apartment block was heavily damaged by a Russian missile strike in Dnipro, Ukraine on January 15, 2023. (REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne)

What makes no sense? The denial of aid to Ukraine, of course. Recently I listened to an interview of Ryan Zinke (R, Montana) regarding the four bills that were introduced by Speaker Mike Johnson to provide aid to Israel, Taiwan, Ukraine, and our defense industrial base. Zinke’s skepticism about supporting Ukraine is, to put it mildly, incoherent. Why single out Ukraine? It’s bonkers.

MT-Sen: Trump To Nominate Rep. Ryan Zinke (R) For Interior Secretary Position — Ryan Zinke (R, Montana)

A person can be forgiven for concluding that a good chunk of the Republican caucus is scared, maybe petrified, of the screeching minority in the part of the party most infected with Trump Personality Disorder (TPD), people like Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, Georgia) and Thomas Massie (R, Kentucky). They threaten to oust Johnson for simply putting Ukraine aid on the floor for a debate and a vote. Shrill, fire-breathing fanatics have outsized influence in a paper-thin Republican majority in the House, ironically a consequence of Trump’s ludicrous 2022 endorsements (he would like to shift blame to abortion).

What is TPD? These are people who, like Trump, confuse theatrics for common sense. It’s a form of political personality that treats stridency, bluntness, and coarseness as the virtues of a statesman.

Thomas Massie Joins MTG's Motion to Vacate as Opposition to Mike Johnson Grows over Ukraine — Rep. Thomas Massie (R, Kentucky) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, Georgia)

But why the hostility to Ukraine? Zinke provided the usual humdrum about needing to secure our borders, our depleted munition stockpiles, and Ukraine corruption. Yet, the first two excuses are ridiculous. Money and supplies going to Israel and Taiwan, which he supports, also steer resources away from our border and weapons inventories. As for corruption, is Ukraine any more corrupt than, say, Chicago, our teacher unions, any of our unions, defense contractors, our litany of eco-industries with both hands in the public purse, et al?

The corruption angle is a ruse to hide an affection for Putin by loud-mouthed zealots who’d never win the spelling bee. It’s all tied up in the Russia hoax melodrama of 2015 to 2019. The left scapegoated Hillary’s 2016 loss on Russia, so the dimwitted Trump enthusiasts quickly discovered their inner Putin. “They’re against him, so we must be for him” is the dictum. The door was thus opened to a love for authoritarian public cleanliness, physicality in political persona, Potemkin visits by Tucker Carlson, and the balderdash of Candace Owens’s rantings — and a willingness to leave Ukraine dangling.

A Ukraine flag on a Trumpkin’s house became as incongruous as the tortoise besting Usain Bolt in the 100 meters.

Ditto for the thought process in the donkey party’s embrace of Ukraine-love. Their own “for ‘em/against ‘em” dialectic led them to replace their LGBTQ+ rainbow flag with Ukraine’s. Russia gave us Trump, in their disturbed thinking, so let’s inflict Ukraine on the Russians. That’ll teach ‘em. It’s, frankly, astounding to watch them after they spent the later years of the Cold War siding with the Russians.

Where’s all that stuff about partisanship ending at the water’s edge in foreign affairs? Hogwash.

Is the MTG caucus aware of the new Axis? It’s not hyperbole to notice the similarities between Germany/Italy/Japan circa 1939 and Russia/Iran/China circa 2024. There are more 1939 similarities in this new triumvirate of evil than during the Cold War (the bipolar U.S. v. Soviet Russia), including a rehash of “American First” isolationism – another Trump legacy. They might concede Iran to a lesser extent, but their cyclopic monovision really only sees China. Thus, as in der Fuhrer gobbling up the Rhineland, then Austria, then Czechoslovakia, they are willing to return Europe to a battlefield, just eighty years later. Their myopia, alongside the rank pusillanimity in other parts of the Republican caucus, is a cloning of a combination of Britian’s Neville Chamberlain and U.S.’s own Charles Lindbergh throughout the party. Is anyone noticing that we’ve been down this road before?

German soldiers being welcomed into the Sudetenland by its German population. | Deutsches heer ... — German soldiers marching into the Czech “Sudetenland” in 1938

Pass the Ukraine bill, and damn The Squad, the TPD Republicans, and the cowardly in GOP ranks.

RogerG

February 22, 2024March 18, 2024

Tucker Carlson, My Tom Hayden Memorial Emissary Award Winner

Tom Hayden and Jane Fonda at news conference after their infamous visit to North Vietnam in 1972

Vintage Photographs of Jane Fonda's Trip to North Vietnam in 1972, Which Earned Her the Nickname ... — Jane Fonda in the seat of a North Vietnamese anti-aircraft gun, the ones that were killing American pilots.

Tucker Carlson confirms he's interviewing Putin in Moscow — Tucker Carlson recently in Moscow to perform the same service for Putin

Tom Hayden, premiere anti-Vietnam War activist, who declared “We refuse to be anti-Communist”, made multiple trips to North Vietnam from 1965 to 1974, including a 1972 one with his future wife, Jane Fonda, whitewashing the communist Hanoi regime. Who elected him to conduct our country’s foreign relations? The nerve of the guy. The American people already elected other people to do it. He’s of the Left, and today on the Right we have Tucker Carlson. In the Hayden tradition of pasting happy face on brutal and totalitarian thuggeries, Carlson goes to Russia and Vladimir Putin to normalize his tyranny, whether intended or not.

Watch below Tucker’s piece about his tour of the Kiyevskaya metro station in Moscow, Russia. Watch him gush about its orderliness and cleanliness. In case you may have missed it, spotless public spaces are a common feature of totalitarianism from Der Fuhrer to the communist Kim dynasty of North Korea. Tucker, it’s hardly a selling point, unless you’re quick to sacrifice liberty for sanitized public spaces.

Throughout his interview with Putin, the despot betrayed his basic Marxist outlook, a product of indoctrination in the USSR from child to career KGB officer. The Soviet Union hasn’t gone away; it’s only gone through a name change. And you can see the shadow of the sinister past in the station.

The Kiyevskaya metro station is named after Kiyev, or the anglicized “Kiev”. Yes, that Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. As this station went up in the 1930s, Stalin was murdering and starving 10 million people or so, mostly in the Ukraine, in something called the Holodomor. The murals festooning the station’s wall are propaganda images of happy peasants at work on their government-imposed communes, or collective farms (kolkhozes). The reality was anything but joyous.

Stalin ordered industrialization, even the industrialization of agriculture, for the country. Of course, the farmers liked their land, farms, animals, and equipment, and resistance fomented as their property was seized and they were herded onto collective farms or work camps (gulags), losing everything. Even the seed for next year’s crop which, like all the grain, was sold to purchase factory equipment. No more crop next year. The communes were as great a disaster as the factories. Famine spread and was exploited by the big man and his politburo to suppress Ukrainian nationalism. The gulags proliferated and became an archipelago of gulags in Solzhenitsyn’s famous words. The murals in the metro were designed to hide the horrors. They were totalitarianism in art.

Spotlessness in public appearances, absolute hygienic orderliness, could be a similar sign of complete tyranny. To keep the spaces clear of rubbish and ugliness, the Putin claque utilizes an import from the CCP: AI facial recognition tech tied to thousands of cameras. But that’s not the only purpose of it. Putin’s henchmen use it to pick up dissenters, dissidents, and political opponents. Many a free thinker has been spirited away into Putin’s archipelago, many never to be heard from again.

Friday, another one of the greats of Russian free thought, Alexei Navalny, died in custody. He joins many others in the grave. Life imitates art, Orwell’s Big Brother. Yep, Tucker, the last vestiges of freedom are thrown into the trash bin along with the other refuse. But Russia has clean subways.

And cheaper food prices, cheaper for a fat and sassy westerner like Tucker as he was guided into a Moscow grocery store (see #4 below). Everything is cheaper in the country, including the labor, which explains the lower prices. Lower incomes depress prices. In 1930s America, during The Great Depression, the time was a buyer’s paradise . . . if you had a steady job. The average monthly income in Russia is $787, as opposed to the U.S. monthly median of $4,568 (see #2 and #3 below). That says volumes.

That’s not all. 60% of Russians spend half their income on just food. 22% of Russian households don’t have indoor plumbing, compared to the American .3% (see #3 below). With a consumer base like that, Tucker could buy out the store with just pocket change, if he could slip it by customs at JFK airport.

North Korea is similarly spotless. Over the years, we’ve seen many pictures of the pristine, purified places in Pyongyang, and thin, even emaciated people standing around. Compare Tucker’s Moscow metro station with this video of Pyongyang street scenes in the next post. Tucker, could we also learn a few things from the Kim dynasty?

I nominate Tucker Carlson for the 2024 Tom Hayden Memorial Emissary Award for his attempt at dignifying the indecent.

Please watch the Carlson tour below.

RogerG

Sources:
1. The full Tucker Carlson interview with Putin can be viewed at https://youtu.be/hYfByTcY49k?si=kxFsUvWJsbtKDUzl
2. “How Average Salary in Russia Compares to US”, Tom Norton, Newsweek, 2/16/24, at https://www.newsweek.com/how-average-salary-russia-compares-us-1870740#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20figures,was%20about%20%24787%20in%20November.
3. Thanks to Jim Geraghty of National Review for his comparison of Russia and the U.S. in “No, America Is Not ‘Ugly and Decayed’”, 2/19/24, at https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/no-america-is-not-ugly-and-decayed/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=blog-post&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=top-bar-latest&utm_term=second
4. Tucker’s grocery store tour can be viewed at https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1758158808835125642
5. “We Need to Talk about Tucker”, Jeffrey Blehar, National Review, 2/20/24, at https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/we-need-to-talk-about-tucker/
6. “Tucker Carlson Claims Groceries Are Cheaper in Russia Despite a Russian Food Inflation Crisis”, Troy Matthews, MTN, 2/16/24, at https://www.meidastouch.com/news/tucker-carlson-claims-groceries-are-cheaper-in-russia-despite-a-russian-food-inflation-crisis#:~:text=In%20a%20survey%20of%205%2C000,more%20than%2020%25%20on%20food.

November 18, 2023December 2, 2023

The Flag of Israel on My Montana Home, 11/18/23

No photo description available.

I am not one to turn my vehicles and home into political billboards. And no country comes close to my love for my own. Still, Israel is special. The history and cultural affinity of the people and country should draw us close to this narrow strip of land on the eastern Mediterranean coast.

The events of October 7 bring into sharp focus the threat to this natural strategic and cultural ally in a very dangerous neighborhood. The horrors of that day should remind us that the U.S. is also a very special country. We are the last remaining superpower on the side of the angels. As such, we can’t be blinkered and flippant like those small countries that dominate the UN General Assembly. Stan Lee of Marvel put it best when he wrote into the mouth of Spider-Man, “With great power there must also come great responsibility.” We have the duty to prevent the annihilation of the Jews and Israel because we have the power to do it.

To be charitable, the radical Left may actually believe that their chants of “End the apartheid state” and “from the river to the sea” aren’t calls for genocide. But if they have their way, there will be a second holocaust of the Jewish people. Israelis would be thrust cheek-by-jowl into political communion with people who hate them, if recent opinion polls are any indication (see below). A poll released on November 14 by Arab World for Research and Development (AWRD) shows that 83% of West Bank residents supported the slaughter of Jews on Oct. 7. Of Gaza Strip inhabitants, almost 64% did so. No other choice came close. Of course, in an exercise of gross euphemism in the question, the slaughter of civilians merely for their Jewish ancestry was hidden behind “military operation” and the killers referred to as “resistance”.

How can a people become so hostile to the very existence of Jews? Simple, the people are raised on a steady diet of the vilest propaganda. I invite you to pay a visit to the Middle East Media Research Institute who regularly looks into the subject (see below). In a Times of Israel story from 2013, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) funded camps for Palestinian children that instilled into these kids the idea that “Jews are the wolf” (see below). Or check out the YouTube video, “Inside the Gaza Summer Camps Training Children to be the Next Generation of Terrorists” at https://youtu.be/vCWMBvxWKL0?si=p1oa8CyaMoiW-qnF, to get a taste of it.

“River to the sea” is a suicide pact for Jews. Should the U.S. be a party to this eventuality through indifference? If you talk to some on the Right, yes. They see America as an insular island on the globe. They wish a return to the 18th and 19th centuries when oceans were barriers, and the U.S. was a developing country. No longer on both counts. They wish to disguise their indifference behind the existence of domestic problems. Problems, like the poor, shall be with you always. But we have the power and with that power we have the responsibility to prevent a horrible replay of history.

Some on the Right – Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens come to mind – seem to suggest that we do nothing till their domestic pet peeves are addressed in their preferred manner. The flag of Israel flying from my house is a reminder that a superpower must look outward and inward at the same time. It’s the adult response in a chaotic world.

RogerG

Read more here:

* The full AWRD poll can be found at https://www.awrad.org/files/server/polls/polls2023/Public%20Opinion%20Poll%20-%20Gaza%20War%202023%20-%20Tables%20of%20Results.pdf

* The Middle East Media Research Institute can be found at https://www.memri.org/search-results?country_id_report%5B0%5D=0&country_id_clip%5B0%5D=0&country_id_jttm%5B0%5D=0&tv_station_id%5B0%5D=0&subject_id%5B0%5D=0&jttm_subject_id%5B0%5D=0&cjlab_category_id%5B0%5D=0&category_id%5B0%5D=0&cdate=0&custom_data_range_start=11/18/2023&custom_data_range_end=11/18/2023&order_type=0&order_style=0&keywords=palestinian%20public%20opinion&type=0&ia_number=&sd_number=&sa_number=&content_number=&author_id&content_type%5B0%5D=0&current_site=

* The YouTube video, “Inside the Gaza Summer Camps Training Children to be the Next Generation of Terrorists”, can be seen at https://youtu.be/vCWMBvxWKL0?si=UmoiHj1r2dgwCDV_

* “Palestinian kids taught to hate Israel in UN-funded camps, clip shows”, Lazar Berman, The Times of Israel, August 14, 2013, at https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinian-kids-taught-to-hate-israel-in-un-funded-camps-clip-shows/

** Also in my Substack feed, The Golden Mean, at https://rogerlgraf.substack.com/

March 27, 2023

Mediocrity Is Dangerous

Presidential debate: Trump and Biden campaigns both say they won — Trump and Biden at their last presidential debate in 2020.

Please watch, if you haven’t already, this recent 60 Minutes report (below) on the CCP’s PLA Navy. It’s eye-opening . . . or should be.

How did we get to this juncture of potentially losing a war against a rising hyper-power, Red China? If you look closely, an answer becomes apparent in the mediocrity that lies at all levels of our society, modern culture, and in our institutions. We are riddled with corrosive ideologies that sap our determination and abilities to respond to the threat. Mediocrities have filled the ranks of our political leadership from Obama to Biden. The predicament is frightening.

How frightening? Defense experts constantly war-game the likely outcomes of military conflict, like the emerging one between the US and Red China that culminated in a report released last December. In 18 of the 22 rounds of the war game, the US lost 500 aircraft, 20 surface ships, and two aircraft carriers. Our capabilities have stagnated as the CCP’s has grown by leaps and bounds. Everybody in the know knows it. The 5,000 sailors on the USS Nimitz should be nervous about being cooped up on a huge target beset by a swarm of anti-ship hypersonics. They should realize that military service has the potential of being a commitment that involves much more than seeing the world or the GI Bill.

USS Oriskany sinking | Sinking of an Aircraft Carrier (2006)… | Guardian Images | Flickr — The sinking of the USS Oriskany off the Florida coast in May of 2016. A harbinger of things to come?

At the same time as we allow our military capabilities to degrade, we plunge a dagger into the ranks’ morale with DEI and anti-racism crusades. These ideological jihads descending on the ranks on orders from the Pentagon dispirit them in charges that America, and all that it stands for, is a through-and-through oppressor. If you buy into it, what happens to your loyalty as your finger sets ready at the trigger of some of the most lethal weaponry in the world? If not, you might be driven to insubordination. What a way to run the nation’s defense.

Our multi-decade of mediocrities in the White House, Congress, and the Pentagon, including the present and previous occupants sitting behind the Resolute desk, have played Tiddlywinks as the Red Chinese are occupied with chess. The linkages between international actions seem to be beyond their mental capacity.

First, Trump. As the rest of the Indo-Pacific, particularly the first island chain and beyond, became abundantly aware of Red China’s encirclement of them in military and Belt-and-Road initiatives, and as they sought closer alignment with the US, Donald Trump attacked their economies with good old-fashioned American protectionism. Remember TPP, the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement? Not only did he quash it, he bragged about it (see “Read more here”).

War Strategies in Asia – Policy Tensor

Soon, in May 2018, Trump is pasting tariffs on imported steel from allies like Canada and Australia. The so-called shift to face Red China was blunted by efforts to make enemies of allies. The logic is straight out of the sandbox. In a tweet from May 2, 2018, he announced in a shallow display of economic reasoning,

“When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!”

Trade wars are good? Did anyone attempt to remind him of Smoot-Hawley, even if it wouldn’t have had any effect? And good for whom? Certainly, appliance manufacturers, and anyone else using steel, and consumers wouldn’t be better off. Plus, it’s a charade that ignores the causes for the evolution of the Rust Belt. Bluntly put, we did it to ourselves in falling into the grip of militant unionism, the snake pit of eco-red tape, and a mounting tax burden. Business goes elsewhere once you become hostile to it. As we speak, California is learning that lesson all over again. Dah!

President Donald Trump Signs Executive Orders — Donald Trump shows the executive order withdrawing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Jan. 23, 2017.

Until we clean up our own act, slapping tariffs on competitive products only puts lipstick on a pig. It’s a loser for most of the country. Consumers and steel users get shafted; allies seek solace from our enemies; and all of it just to pander to a few union bosses and a few thousand dues-payers at a cost to hundreds of thousands of other American workers. It’s a classic one step forward and six steps back. Donald Trump can’t count steps.

Then, the man from Mar-A-Lago got it in his craw that the Bushes should be slapped with “establishment” and “forever wars”. Of course, the “forever wars” rhetoric, if applied to the Cold War, a classic “forever war”, would have meant a surrender to the USSR and the world turning into a Soviet playground. Some “forever wars” are worth fighting, because “forever” can turn into collapse of an adversary ill-equipped to keep up.

But Donald Trump got his way in the sordid Doha Accords which established the predicate for a withdrawal from the Middle East, only to be additionally botched by his successor who, according to Robert Gates, has “been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades” (see below). Now, Trump, in his third bite at the apple, has decided to pander to the isolationistic wing of the Republican Party by favoring a weakening of our resolve on Ukraine. A bugout from Afghanistan will be followed by another one from Ukraine.

6 Political Takeaways For President Biden From The Chaotic Afghanistan Withdrawal - WUSF Public ... — A C5a Galaxy taking off at Kabul airport as part of the Biden withdrawal from Afghanistan, August 2021.

Donald Trump and his senescent successor seem incapable of playing chess. If the grotesquerie of a Kabul bugout is condemnable for its encouragement to aggressors, what do you think an evisceration of Ukraine on the heels of Kabul would mean? And while we’re floundering in this self-defeating wrangle over isolationism, we assault our own troops with charges of racism and other bigotries. Shortly after Biden takes office, a standdown was issued throughout our national defense to expose the ranks to anti-American indoctrination predicated on American being a hateful country. Mediocrities running the country may be a greater threat than a decaying national defense.

A disaster awaits, and it will be plaid in blood, the blood of those who volunteered to defend the country. The scene of charred bodies going down with the ship and many of our injured sailors swimming in seas ablaze may be the real cost for choosing mediocrities to control the ship of state.

Will we idly wait till it happens? Will we continue to turn to mediocrities? Please watch the video.

RogerG

Read more here:

* “Trump’s Exit From Asian Trade Pact Damaged America, Boosted China”, Stuart Anderson, Forbes, 10/4/2021, at https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2021/10/04/trumps-exit-from-asian-trade-pact-damaged-america-boosted-china/?sh=5145ad4d5e80

* “Trade wars, Trump tariffs and protectionism explained”, BBC News, 10/19/2019, at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-43512098

* “Biden has been wrong on every major foreign policy decision in last 4 decades”, Cal Thomas, Washington Times, 8/16/2021, at https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/aug/16/biden-has-been-wrong-on-every-major-foreign-policy/

March 18, 2023March 18, 2023

Did DeSantis Join the GOP’s Isolationism Caucus?

May be an image of 1 person — Florida Governor Ron DeSantis

Mark Twain’s famous quip of history seldom repeating but at least rhyming comes to the fore once again. The isolationism of William Jennings Bryan (failed 3-time Democratic presidential candidate), Eugene Debs (socialist), Charles Lindbergh (1940-1, America First Committee), and the 1960’s anti-war left has found a home in some of the boisterous ranks of the GOP. Now, must we add Ron DeSantis to the list of people dipping their toe in the tepid water of today’s isolationism, a form of reflexive non-interventionism?

Recently, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared on Tucker Carlson that Ukraine is not a “vital” interest of the US when he said, “While the U.S. has many vital national interests . . . becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them” (see below). He had the nerve to incoherently call it a “territorial dispute”. Putin’s stumbling blitzkrieg in February and March of 2022 had more than the Donbas in his sights. It was an attempted seizure of the whole country. Mere territorial dispute?

r/CombatFootage - Russian Military Column near Kiev approximately 30 km long — Russian tanks and other vehicles on the road to Kyiv, February 2022.

First, Trump senses the popularity of the new isolationism too and seeks to exploit it by using the banal canard of domestic problems leaving little room for a superpower foreign policy: “The Democrats are sending another $40 billion to Ukraine, yet America’s parents are struggling to even feed their children” (see below). If the presence of starving children in America is an argument against our involvement in the world, Spain would still control much of the Caribbean and the Philippines; the Panama Canal would have remained the unfinished and overgrown mess that Ferdinand de Lesseps left it; the Kaiser would be free to redraw the map of Europe; Hitler might have turned London into another one of his vacation retreats; and a free-ranging USSR would still have a hammerlock on Eastern Europe with an array of Third World proxy satraps menacing our borders and access to rare earths.

Republican Senator Josh Hawley is more forthright in his isolationism when he said in a February speech before the Heritage Foundation, “We should cut off U.S. military aid to Ukraine until our European allies step up.” Again, “I don’t think we should give any more funding right now” (See below). He talks as if stopping naked aggression on the continent of Europe is not in our interests all by itself, as if 104,812 US deaths and 552,117 total casualties in 1940’s Europe were wasted.

Is DeSantis beginning his transition into Charles Lindbergh, to join the other trans-Lindberghs in the House GOP’s neo-Squad (move over AOC for Gaetz and company) and their supporting cast of huckster pundits. Lindbergh was noted for his advocacy of neutrality from the start of the war in 1939 until Japanese naval aircraft turned Pearl Harbor into a burning hulk. Isolationism works until it doesn’t.

Charles Lindbergh's - September 11, 1941 Des Moines Speech - YouTube — Charles Lindbergh making a speech before the non-interventionist American First Committee in Des Moines, Ia., September 11, 1941.

That Metternich of the right, Matt Gaetz, in a display of thundering obtuseness in 2021, proclaimed to Gen. Mark Milley, “We are an Atlantic power. . . .” Right there, Gaetz made us a regional power, and as one, incoherently, we ought not support Ukraine. His latest concoction is the “Ukraine Fatigue Resolution” which demands a halt to further military and financial aid to Ukraine (see below).

It joins the ranks of other stoppages to US intervention such as the Democrats’ abandonment of South Vietnam. They got us in – JFK, LBJ – and now enthralled by the 60’s neo-Marxist New Left, they were determined to desert the South Vietnamese. After the signing of the Paris Peace Accords in January 1973, a Democrat-led Congress approved an end to funding slated for August of that year. As things in the South heated up in 1975 under a full-scale North Vietnamese invasion, they rejected any more assistance to our beleaguered ally. The communist North Vietnamese flag flew atop the presidential palace in Saigon.

And let us not forget Biden’s August 2021 bugout from Afghanistan. A new flag flies over Kabul. It was an expression of the same phenomena: get out, stop supporting, end the intervention, cease the “forever wars”. They always, though, seem to end in the same manner: quarter million boat people, reeducation camps, genocidal atrocities, calamities in adjacent countries, and years of subsequent US feebleness and fickleness.

The Florida tin-hat Metternich is not even playing checkers as Putin, Xi, and the mullahs play chess. A key to playing chess is understanding the linkages of moves. Such as, a bugout of Afghanistan led to Putin’s 2022 imitation of the North Vietnamese brazen assault on the South back in 1975, and a Ukraine bugout would be a green flag for Xi to cross the Taiwan Strait. I’m not sure if the GOP’s neo-Squad in Congress can even conceive of the connection between a surrender in Ukraine and Xi’s plans for Taiwan. They sure as heck make hay of the consequences of Biden’s bugout of Afghanistan. Bugouts are bugouts regardless of whether they are under the donkey or elephant banner.

May be an image of 4 people and people standing — Three members of the GOP’s neo-Squad (l to r): Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene.

With his finger up in the proverbial popular winds, DeSantis joins Trump and the GOP’s neo-Squad in falling under the spell of a new Vietnam Syndrome. Remember it? It referred to a period of pathological fear of US intervention after the fall of Saigon. What did that give us? The world became a meaner place with a massive Soviet military buildup and rabid Soviet adventurism all around us. Then the over year-long humiliation of the US by the Iranian mullahs after taking American embassy personnel hostage in 1979-80. We wrung our hands, proved flagrant incompetence in a failed rescue mission, and had to wait till Reagan was sworn into office in January 1981.

They all talk of peace. Matt Gaetz does. In his surrender resolution, he blusters, “. . . the United States . . . urges all combatants to reach a peace agreement.” Of course, the simultaneous cutoff of assistance to Ukraine will guarantee a peace agreement . . . under Putin’s terms. That’s not peace; it sets the stage for the conquest of the Baltic republics and Taiwan. It’s Munich 1938 and Czechoslovakia 1939 all over again. That’s right, Gaetz, prove that you have a spine by showing that you don’t have one.

Neville Chamberlain, making his infamous "peace in our time" address in September 1938. — Neville Chamberlain, making his infamous “peace in our time” address in September 1938 after the Munich Conference, an exercise in appeasement. (Photo: Central Press/Getty Images)

A new Vietnam syndrome – the “forever war” syndrome – has gripped the dim bulbs in the GOP, my party. It is disheartening to witness the normally level-headed, like DiSantis, become so infatuated with willful historical blindness.

From the “Ukrainian crisis” to the war in Ukraine - Cartooning for Peace

RogerG

Read more here:

* “DeSantis saying Ukraine support is not ‘vital’ national interest sparks backlash in GOP”, Jack Forest, CNN, 3/15/2023, at https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/desantis-republicans-ukraine-aid/index.html

* For Matt Gaetz’s Ukraine fatigue Resolution go to his website: “Matt Gaetz Leads 11 Lawmakers in Introduction of ‘Ukraine Fatigue’ Resolution to Halt U.S. Aid to Ukraine” at https://gaetz.house.gov/media/press-releases/matt-gaetz-leads-11-lawmakers-introduction-ukraine-fatigue-resolution-halt-us

* Charles Lindbergh’s speeches against US intervention in Europe can be found here: “Two Historic Speeches: October 13, 1939 & August 4, 1940” at http://charleslindbergh.com/americanfirst/speech3.asp

* “Josh Hawley’s U-Turn on Military Aid to Ukraine”, John McCormack, National Review Online, 3/1/2023, at https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/03/josh-hawleys-u-turn-on-military-aid-to-ukraine/

* “The two biggest 2024 Republican names would mean bad news for Ukraine”, Stephen Collinson, CNN, 3/15/2023, at https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/15/politics/2024-republicans-trump-desantis-ukraine/index.html

March 5, 2023March 5, 2023

Josh Hawley, the New Neville Chamberlain . . . or John Kerry

May be an image of 1 person and suit — Sen. Josh Hawley (R, Mo.)

It was said of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in the 1930’s that he was naïve, that he really didn’t comprehend what he was up against in Germany’s Chancellor Adolf Hitler. A career in business, consensual government, Parliamentary debate, and compromise among political actors and parties didn’t prepare him for dealing with the time’s new brutal, totalitarian utopians like Hitler – more street thug, but with a vision, than anything. Mistaking the chancellor for opposition mp’s in the House of Commons led to appeasement and a goon’s growing appetite for more in Czechoslovakia, Poland, lebensraum, and six years of the bloodiest war in history.

Scrap of Paper — British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain waving the piece of paper with Hitler’s signature announcing “peace in our time” after his arrival at the airport in London in 1938.

Chamberlain was honest but naïve. In contrast, Sen. Josh Hawley’s Russian appeasement is grounded in reasoning so confusing and disjointed that a person can be excused for questioning his sanity or drawing the conclusion that it’s pure demagoguery. In sum, it’s a thought process that might sell in a schoolyard to people who still believe in the Easter bunny.

Hawley is following in the footsteps of John Kerry, erstwhile Democratic candidate for president in 2004. In a 2004 March debate (see below), Kerry declared, “[I] actually did vote for the $87 billion [$87 billion Iraq War appropriation] before I voted against it.” Kerry was sending reassurances to the dominant left wing of the Democratic Party. Here’s Hawley expressing his own flip-flop in support for Ukraine (see below):

February 24, 2022 – “Russia’s brutal assault on Ukraine and invasion of its territory must be met with strong American resolve.”

February 24, 2023 – “I would just say to Republicans: You can either be the party of Ukraine and the globalists or you can be the party of East Palestine and the working people of this country.” Adding, “It’s time to say to the Europeans: No more welfare for Europeans.” Shortly before these comments, he said more succinctly, “I don’t think we should give any more funding right now.”

Il était une fois en Amérique : 2004, John Kerry le Français — John Kerry, Democrat presidential nominee in 2004.

What to make of that Hawley hash? One year passes and he’s ready to act like the Democrat-led Congress of 1973 when they approved a cut-off of funds for military operations in Indochina (see below). It could simply be the pandering demagogue that resides in many a politician’s soul. He’s certainly got his nose in the air and is picking up the scent of the reinvigorated isolationist right.

It doesn’t make any more sense after dissecting his meandering rationalizations. We can’t support Ukraine and address a train derailment? What? Are we Guatemala? This is a policy pronouncement groping for a justification.

The thought-funk doesn’t get any clearer as he bounces from complaints about Europeans not doing more, to amazingly suggesting that the Ukrainian success means . . . end the support. Got it? It doesn’t make any more sense to me either. Do I need to say it? Ukraine’s successes can be greatly attributed to our willingness to keep them in the field with the weapons and munitions to grind down the Kremlin boss’s Wehrmacht (see below for an excellent piece on the Russian losses and failures), and all the while sending a signal to Xi that taking Taiwan won’t be made easier by the influence of the trembling knees of appeasers like Josh Hawley.

Illustrative photo from open sources — Destroyed Russian tanks and vehicles piled in Ukraine.

Let’s face it, the posture may be more of the schoolyard at work: Biden’s for it so we must be against it. To be fair, I find the Left’s totemistic virtue-signaling with the Ukrainian flag flying from dorm windows, like the Viet Cong flag of yesteryear, chintzily exhibitionistic. Still, I don’t care how they get there, or how they express it, so long as they continue to support sticking a thumb in the eye of one of Xi Jinping’s allies.

It’s stunning to find the Right more like Chamberlain or Code Pink than Theodore Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan. This may come as news to the isolationistic right, but this isn’t 1814 when it took three weeks for the letter announcing the end of the War of 1812 to reach New Orleans after the battle had been fought. Oceans no longer insulate us from the world’s travails, especially if they’re patrolled by Putin’s and the PLA’s navies or leaped by tribesmen and disgruntled urban jihadis who decide to express their hate by seizing airliners. ICBM’s, hypersonics, jet aircraft, prosperous economies, super cargo ships, the space domain, satellites, trade, and modern communications should remind anyone that the security value of oceans has long been downgraded.

Specifically Designed To Track ‘Unpredictable’ Hypersonic Missiles, US Military Is Ready With A ... — Hypersonic flight path compared to a conventional missile over an ocean.

Like it or not, the world is interconnected, and so are human endeavors. Fecklessness in international relations isn’t a virtue. Appeasement toward Russia diminishes the value of any bellicosity toward the CCP. Deterrence becomes a dead word. The “pivot” to Asia will be imperiled, not enhanced, by a retreat in Ukraine.

The Roman general Vegetius was famous for writing, “Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum” – if you want peace, prepare for war. I don’t know where appeasement fits into the equation.

May be an illustration of text

RogerG

Read more here:

* Hawley’s 2022 stance on Ukraine was uncovered in a Tweet by the reporter John McCormack on Feb. 24, 2022 at https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1496878265138806784

* John Kerry’s Iraq War flip-flop can be found here: “Kerry discusses $87 billion comment”, CNN, 9/30/2004, at https://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/30/kerry.comment/

* “Josh Hawley’s U-Turn on Military Aid to Ukraine”, John McCormack, National Review Online, 3/1/2023, at https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/03/josh-hawleys-u-turn-on-military-aid-to-ukraine/?utm_source=recirc-&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=featured-content-trending&utm_term=first

* US congressional actions to restrict and prohibit military actions in Indochina can be found here: “Congressional Restrictions on U.S. Military Operations in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Somalia, and Kosovo: Funding and Non-Funding Approaches”, Congressional Research Service, 1/16/2007, at https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/RL33803.pdf

* Excellent piece on Russia’s losses and failures in the Ukraine War: “Russia’s Winter Offensive Is Criminally Incompetent”, Mark Antonio Wright, National Review Online, 3/1/2023, at https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/russias-winter-offensive-is-criminally-incompetent/?utm_source=recirc-&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=featured-content-trending&utm_term=second

October 26, 2022October 26, 2022

Ukraine and the Bursting of Bubbles

Alas, Tulsi Gabbard left the Democratic Party after some years of abuse typified by Hilary Clinton branding her a Russian agent. I can’t say I blame her. She went from the Democratic Congressional Caucus to the arms of the Fox News punditry, a go-to for Tucker Carlson and the “populist” Right. There’s wisdom in crowds – the idea that crowds are wiser than “experts”, thus “populism” – and also mass mania, unfortunately another facet of “populism”. Right now, the foreign policy fad of the moment on the “populist” Right is a retreat to fortress America. It’s incoherent, but there it is. Bubble #1.

That’s not all. Bubble #2 is the grip of climate-change ideology among our so-called elites. The simple fact that climate changes is exploited for a wholesale revamping of our way of life. This won’t end well since we are starting to see the first signs of its horrendous fallout as Putin utilizes his oil/gas/coal weapon.

Commissar Putin’s invasion of Ukraine carries the pin to pop both bubbles. In the first fantasy, the limits of collective security, collective solidarity, collectively imposed anything are borne out. One overriding behemoth must be available to thump the world’s worst malefactors. In the 19th century the role was filled by Britain and her navy; the baton passed to the U.S. in the 20th and 21st centuries, like it or not. Sorry Tulsi and Tucker. One nation must fill the role of the one power who scoundrels must watch over their shoulders. Is this carte blanche for intervention? No, but we must be in a position to act when necessary, Tulsi and Tucker be damned. When a vacuum exists, we get the barbarian 5th-century sacking of Rome and the descent into Hobbesian chaos, Europe as a Napoleonic grand duchy, the slaughter pens of the WWI trenches, blitzkrieg and the Holocaust, and communist expansion at the barrel of a gun (or tank, or ICBM) and more mass slaughter in the late 20th. Weakness invites horrors.

Collective solidarity gambits like the UN or EU are no substitute for the behemoth. A majority of the UN could probably fit into the international malefactors’ caucus, which makes the occupants of the building on Turtle Bay a dubious enforcer of goodness and light. As for the EU, it is proof that once an ideological frenzy like climate-change ideology grips continental elites all the nations in the club will step back a century in prosperity. The result is a decline in energy freedom and a fall into a dependence on the whims of Putin and his Kremlin kleptocrats, and a choice between wintertime of mass hypothermia or quietude on the rape of Ukraine.

Make no mistake about it, today’s thugs-with-nuclear-weapons act like Jack the Ripper, always looking to see if the night watchman is distracted or asleep. For 10 years, in the wake of the breakup of the Soviet Union, the world chose to be spectators as Russia suppressed Chenya. The appetite wasn’t whetted with a few Chechens so Putin turned his gaze to the bigger prize of the Ukraine in his campaign to reconstitute the USSR. Interestingly, the role of night watchman at the time was filled by Obama, but Obama was busy with the eight-year run of his apology tour. Obama was caught promising Putin a dismantlement of missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic if Putin would play nice for his reelection campaign. Done deal. Obama gets reelected and afterwards Putin invaded and annexed Crimea and used proxies to lop off two eastern districts of the Ukrainian Donbass. After the Trump interregnum, Putin pounced with Obama II, Joe Biden, at the helm fumbling Afghanistan, dispiriting the American military with an inquisition to ferret out the nefarious kulaks of “white supremacy” in the ranks, and wrecking the US economy in wild spending and a full-frontal assault on our bountiful energy resources – a textbook example of how to voluntarily dismantle a nation.

In the meantime, Tucker and Tulsi are aghast that the semi-senescent Biden would dare empty US weapons inventories in support of a Ukrainian fighting force of high esprit de corps. And the Ukrainians are giving a good accounting of themselves. But Tucker, Tulsi, and the “populist” Right in the podcastry are in the grip of fear of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. What do they propose to do as Putin brazenly invades? I don’t know, they won’t say, but they heap scorn on Zelensky and his country. Odd. It’s perplexing. Is it due to an unstated love affair with nationalism, even if it is of the Russian variety?

Anyway, no better inducement for nuclear proliferation cannot be imagined. Go nuclear, and you too can establish the caliphate, starve your people and unite the Korean peninsula under a monomaniacal family junta, or fulfill your wish to reimpose the iron fist of the USSR. Just get the bomb and watch the “populist” Right media sweat bullets if our government should dare arm the victims.

No nation should put itself at the mercy of nuclear blackmail. The possession of nuclear weapons should not mean that a nation’s rulers have the winning lottery ticket to the mega-prize as the rest of the world cowers in acceptance. Cowering is no answer; deterrence is, as it always has. Sī vīs pācem, parā bellum: “If you want peace, prepare for war.” Not even diplomacy works without it. That is, make the cost of using these WMD’s far greater than any benefit. The cost can come in the form of nuclear retaliation and/or Russia’s status as a pariah in the full sense of the word and/or threats to Putin’s personal safety. Being Interpol’s no. 1 fugitive will not contribute to an autocrat’s peace of mind. State the costs up front and be prepared to carry it out. Sweating bullets is for Putin, not the pundits in the Fox News studios.

The formula applies to us as well. To stand by, appease, or sanction aggression will only green-light more of it. The costs of the populist Right’s dithering and fear are far greater than any benefits. Why shouldn’t Red China initiate a “special military operation” on Taiwan since the politburo in Beijing has nuclear weapons too? Say goodbye to Taiwan. Speaking of a Hobbesian world beset by anyone with the “bomb” license. No matter what the Right’s appeasement caucus has to say, you can’t replace a calculation that is as old as humankind with dithering and fear.

Ukraine is forcing another cost/benefit dose of reality and the bursting of Bubble #2. Putin’s ambitions are smashing any illusions of a costless “transition” to a carbon-free ecotopia. Indeed, the wakeup call of the cure being worse than the disease may be the one Putin gift to the world from the Ukraine imbroglio. The so-called cure of greenie energy promises a devolution to a 19th century GDP, with very little likelihood of any impact on global temperatures. The world watching a voluntary descent into economic struggles isn’t likely to inspire much of a following. Self-immolation isn’t a successful recruitment tool.

Germany called it Energiewende (energy transition), their effort in reality to transition from industrial powerhouse to Putin concubine. Under the EU’s own Green Deal, the continent is to be carbon free by 2050, and all the while cementing an addiction for Putin energy as their backbone, and particularly for Germany: 55 percent of Germany’s natural gas, a third of its oil, and half its coal. Try running the factories of Mercedes-Benz Group AG on the kind of electricity that makes Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez smile.

Unsaid about the “transition” is the absolute need for a fossil fuel backbone to buck-up those ugly and vast arrays of Bunyanesque windmills and solar panels. But the electricity production is unavoidably spasmodic. The hours of full sunlight in Germany, for instance, translate into the annual daylength equivalent of 158 days, or conversely 207 days of cloud cover. And sometimes, inexplicably, the North Sea wind fails to blow, which happened in September 2021 and lasted weeks. When nature didn’t cooperate with the dream of Berlin’s central planners, Germany double downed on stupid by closing the three remaining nuclear power plants (now delayed). Germany learned that zero-carbon/zero-nuclear means blackouts, rationing, skyrocketing rates, job losses, and the prospect of widespread hypothermia deaths in this and future winters if they refused to pay the Khan’s ransom.

In the upside-down logic of the greenie crowd, not paying the ransom means an even greater attachment for Alices’ Wonderland. For these dreamers, Putin’s cutoff is more of an excuse to transition to . . . blackouts, rationing, skyrocketing rates, job losses, and the prospect of widespread hypothermia deaths in this and future winters. Alice’s logic is evident on the “populist” Right. Their substitute for “peace through strength” is . . . dithering and fear. Diplomacy driven by dithering and fear leads to a dark place. At this juncture, the loons of the Left, enveloped in eco-madness, and the loons of the “populist” Right, in the grip of Russian nuke-fear paralysis, have nothing to offer but wreckage.

This resembles a mid-winter scene after the second day of snow in Chisinau, Moldova — Late spring freeze in Europe, 2017. This scene is from Chisinau, Moldova. Try heating your home or getting to work with no nuclear power and Putin reducing your fossil fuel supply by a third to a half. Don’t expect much help from “sustainables”.

RogerG

September 29, 2022September 29, 2022

The Tomfoolery of “Transition”, Social That Is

Watch buffoons in the national media and the upper rungs of the government sound technocratic, which means that they claim to be the inheritors of the “science”, the “experts”, and the “best and brightest” from our academic bubbles in the grip of, truth be told, cultural extremism. And watch our life get measurably worse.

Politics corrupts judgment, and no more fevered environment exists than one just before an election. Today, the word “transition” is employed to hide many sins. Just a week ago, Karine Jean-Pierre, Biden’s press secretary, announced, “. . . what we are seeing . . . is a transition to a more steady and stable growth.” Transition frequently crosses her lips on nearly everything that could foretell troubled times ahead. Biden, the donkey party powerful, and blue-state potentates are also especially fond of the word. It’s their current favorite to sound wise.

The jargon is a reflex of progressivism. Progressivism built its reputation on replacing the compromises, clashing interests, “smoke-filled rooms”, and bargaining of messy democracy with the credentialed “expert”. They actually believed that society can be managed by fine-tuning, like a technician adjusting an old-style carburetor. A little turn of the fiscal and regulatory screw here and there and bliss will be upon us. So, if fighting climate change and pursuing social justice (ergo blatant racial favoritism) are your goals, an agency of degreed “experts” and appropriate decrees from on high will seamlessly float the people in the right direction without pain. It’s all a bunch of hooey.

Hundreds of millions of free souls will not be rigidly controlled by a claque of government employees who lack the humility of admitting that they don’t know half as much as they claim, and a good portion of what they do know is wrong. The economist Friedrich Hayek warned of the inherent “knowledge problem” in government. It’s playing out before our eyes.

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“Transition” conceals a troubling winter. Fuel prices normally experience seasonal gyrations, but the Biden people raised the water level of those fluctuations by over half. Prices undulate at a rate of 50% to 100% over a year or two ago. Be prepared for a jump in electricity rates this winter on the east coast, Northeast, and other blue bubbles, which is not surprising given that they are most enthusiastic about rule by “expert” – all according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, an agency that is limited to measuring reality, and not to be confused with the “experts” of the climate change and equity freakouts.

“Transition” is often coupled with “soft landing”. President Clinton caught with his hand in the proverbial cookie jar, once parsed on the meaning of “is” in his perjury before a federal grand jury. The same is true for the treatment of “transition” and “soft landing” by the gaggle of progressives dominating the regime. The words are rhetorical cosmetic surgery for probable layoffs and business retrenchment. You don’t have to look far for proof. The economy only recently reached its pre-pandemic total employment numbers, which doesn’t take into account population growth. The laggard pace of employment screws up the unemployment rate. Vigorous job growth coming out of a shutdown by government fiat isn’t surprising. But a 3.7% unemployment rate out of a pool of adults shrunk by huge numbers opting out of the workforce makes the unemployment number almost superfluous.

Retrenchment is in the winds. Big Tech and others are beginning to trim some fat. Meta, Twilio, and Snap are jettisoning workers. Gap, Boeing, and Walmart are lopping administrative overhead. Real estate is taking a big hit as Wells Fargo, RE/MAX, and Redfin cut employees and agents as the Fed raises interest rates to combat another Fed-induced problem: inflation. And Biden and company still want to fight inflation – too much money chasing too few goods – by amazingly throwing more money at it. Never has a fire been successfully fought by pouring jet fuel on it.

Local businesses are hard it. The 2020 summer of riots didn’t help. Downtowns resemble ghost towns. Cities can’t proclaim a welcome mat for business when the sidewalks are open sewers and wanton theft, even serial assault, are ho-hum to district attorneys. Now we get to the cultural dimensions of “transition” and “soft landing”.

“Transition” to an “equity” society entails racial discrimination (against Asians and white males), lawlessness, crime victims, property destruction, XY-chromosome girls in XX-chromosome girls sports, and extremist indoctrination (eco-cultism, CRT, transgenderism, socialism) in the schools. No place is safe from the transitioners, not the home, not parenthood. Listen to Nikole Hannah-Jones – a symbol of the intersectionality of Black, female, and extremist cultural revolutionary – expounding on the danger of parents having a say in their children’s education (see below). It encapsulates the foolishness of “transition” and “soft landing” by “experts”.

Dropping the pretense of deceptive verbiage would be a great start. The so-called reformers are revolutionaries and should be forced to lay out their vision of how to create the new person for their new world. It’s totalitarian in scope. They need to lay their cards on the table so we are aware that the “soft landing” will be hard and brutal, as all such movements have proven to be. It won’t end well.

RogerG

Read more here:

* The U.S. Energy Information Agency’s electricity rate forecast of Sept. 7, 2022 can be found at https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/electricity.php .

* Jim Geraghty of National Review wrote an excellent piece on the subject in “The Economy Is Starting to Buckle”, National Review Online, Sept, 26, 2022, at https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-economy-is-starting-to-buckle/ .

* The normally suspect Bloomberg News announced the achievement of the employment milestone In “Employment in US Has Finally Exceeded Its Pre-Pandemic Level” at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/employment-in-us-has-finally-exceeded-its-pre-pandemic-level?leadSource=uverify%20wall .

March 20, 2022March 20, 2022

What Is the National Interest in Ukraine?

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The normally sensible Brit Hume on Bret Baier’s Special Report on Wednesday (3/16/22) asked the salient question on Ukraine: What is our national interest in Ukraine? It’s the same question every government has to ask when facing an international dilemma such as this one. For Hume, his inflection and posture inferred skepticism about a major US national interest in support of Ukraine. Take a tour around much of the Fox News primetime lineup and you’ll get commentary heavily dowsed in doubt with some bordering on complete rejection of any. Are they right? No, a hundred times “No”.

In addressing the query, one factor corrupts the popular media that influences much public opinion. A competent answer rarely lends itself to cable show compression – i.e., soundbites. The setting favors the cynic and hampers proponents. It’s much easier for a detractor to ask the question and force proponents to contrive a response to fit 10 seconds. Is that how we want overriding issues to be treated? Hardly.

Any intelligent consideration of the national interest in Ukraine begs particular questions. What would Europe and the world be like after a Russian conquest of Ukraine? Would it be a friendlier world for the US? An additional and related question: What would Russia under a reenergized Putin be like after a Ukraine conquest? Is a cooperative, agreeable, and contented Putin a likelihood? Oh, what will the CCP be left to think?

We study history for its clues on human nature.

As such, one could be excused for having a dim view of our prospects in this return to a world of contending hyper-powers. History is not encouraging. It’s rhyming in the cadences of the 1930’s. Once again, we have revanchist powers in Europe and Asia, and they have the additional liability of having nuclear arsenals. Their actions should focus the mind in a sterner way than a border dispute between two small satraps. A bear leaves more evidence of its passage than a mouse. Watch for the bear, not the mouse.

Trundling to the way-back machine, fascist Germany and Italy weren’t satisfied with the Rhineland and Abyssinia. Japan wasn’t made sanguine with Manchuria. League of Nations protests and sanctions didn’t halt Imperial Japan’s behavior and the Munich appeasement of forcing Czechoslovakia to surrender the Sudetenland didn’t whet Hitler’s appetite. The West had dug itself into such a deep hole by 1939 that it took six years and 75-80 million deaths, 3% of the world’s population, to bring the malefactors to heel.

A new axis has taken shape reminding us of that old one. The 1930’s edition began in 1936 with treaties of cooperation among the serial aggressors and ended with the full-blown military Tripartite Pact in 1940. Acting in historical lockstep, Putin and Xi met on February 4 to announced a bipartite pact with world-hogging spheres of influence. The joint statement reads as follows:

“The new inter-State relations between Russia and China are superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era. Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation . . . . Russia and China stand against attempts by external forces to undermine security and stability in their common adjacent regions, intend to counter interference by outside forces in the internal affairs of sovereign countries under any pretext, oppose colour [sic] revolutions, and will increase cooperation in the aforementioned areas.”

They are angling for a resuscitated Soviet Empire for Putin and Xi’s rendition of Japan’s old Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere – “Asia for the Asians”, er CCP, so to speak.

And, simultaneously, as in that bygone era, we have a recurrence of an anti-war Right. We are quite familiar with the Left’s aversion for anything nationally muscular. They have a habitual zeal for opposition to the military and for the peddling of facile “peace” – of the better-red-than-dead variety – and the accompanying disparagement of any nation deserving of our sympathies. Such was evident on the 1930’s Right – Lindbergh’s America First Committee and leading congressional figures like Sen. Robert Taft (R, Ohio) – and increasingly appears to be true today. Scan the Right’s media offerings (Fox News primetime, Newsmax, and a host of other digital offerings) and you’ll see the smearing of Ukraine, fears of a military-industrial complex, the dangers of spilt American blood on foreign soil, and the hyperbole of a new World War III at every turn. At the end of the day, it’s a repackaged 1930’s playbook that calls for unilateral abandonment of a national interest if a foreign thug threatens.

The now-worn playbook shows in a diminished military capacity, both then and now. Today’s defense doctrine went from simultaneously fighting two wars to one. In order to fulfill the “pivot to Asia”, we had relegated ourselves to abandoning Afghanistan. Defense spending as a share of GDP gradually declined from 9% in the 1960s to under 4% today. We are doing our best to recreate the circumstances that led to Pearl Harbor. This time, we may not have the time to build up. As Congress begins the debate of a new draft law, the nukes had already left their silos and advanced divisions of the People’s Liberation Army have landed on the shores of Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands.

So, how will a disquisition like this one be shoehorned into a Laura Ingraham or Joy Reid segment? Hmmm.

Something lurks behind the paralyzing alarms of our celebrities on the Right (and maybe the Left). One thing might be the hankering for the type of international dealings of the sailing-ship era. It was a time when oceans blocked anyone but the most capable and determined assailant. The 21 miles of the English Channel’s Dover Strait proved to be insurmountable even for Napoleon at his height of power. Today, an airborne division can be dropped on Albany in a matter of hours; 30 minutes is the time from an ICBM launch from its Aleysk silo to Chicago (faster for sub-launched and hyper-sonics); WMD can come in a suitcase; and cyber invasions to bollix our grid are nearly instantaneous from Beijing keystroke to PG&E. Someone tell Tucker Carlson.

Secondly, in a display of obeisance to simple-minded Trump-talk, they have a 1950’s template for America. It was a time when the U.S. was riding high, alone in the world, as Europe and much of Asia were in rubble. In a way, they are right to admire the time because those were the halcyon days before environmentalist triumphalism and the regnant belief that federal spending can cure deep-seated personal problems, alongside its attendant and economy-dragging trillion-dollar deficits. But, by clinging to Trump’s rhetorical apron strings, they take it much further in bashing a trade deficit that neither he nor they understand. In a clear example of foot-shooting, their targets include trading relationships with our allies and the ones that we’ll need to counter China’s latest edition of Asia for the Asians. It’s as if they chucked Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations and Statecraft for Dummies out the window and are winging it.

It won’t end well after the rampages and the torching of 12% of US GDP (US exports’ contribution to GDP). Gazing back into the history, the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff and the Great Depression share the same womb.

Remembering the Mothball Fleet — Mothballed US Navy ships in Suisun Bay, Ca.

The doom of repeating history, in Descartes famous words, looms large. Don’t expect expansionistic predators-with-nukes to be impressed by an economic and military retreat to fortress America. We will quickly learn that the world as a playground for powerful rogues will not be to our liking. We’ve seen it before, déjà vu all over again. Thus, we have a national interest in keeping Putin and the CCP at bay, if for no other reason than to avoid the accusation of flunking high school History. The sooner we discredit the anti-war Right and Left and its incipient isolationism, the sooner our national interest will come into focus.

Let’s hope at this momentous hour that we don’t shrug our shoulders and say under our breath, c’est la vie. We will live to regret it if we do.

Putin & Russia

RogerG

March 10, 2022March 14, 2022

Ukraine and Hidden Agendas

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While ruminating on the latest thought-fad emanating from the Left, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), I was reminded of the tendency of people to hide their real intentions behind a flurry of academic jargon. Thus, the convoluted and incoherent MMT. Economists – left, right and center – have dubbed it “Calvinball” (Paul Krugman), “not ready for primetime” (Scott Summer), “sounded like lunacy” (Michael Strain), and “a political [not economic] manifesto” (report for France’s central bank). Frankly, MMT boils down to this: if the government wants to do something, go ahead and print the money and do it. No problem, the MMT priesthood would sing in chorus. Everything will be hunky-dory.

But what are they really after? Pure and simple, they want a humongous government with the power to tax, regulate, and spend at will; no restraints; socialism. MMT is just another tangled oratorical path to get there. Please, fans of socialism, cut the crap.

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The same mental gymnastics are at work on the right. Events in Ukraine have exposed a segment of the right’s own rhetorical curtain. Tucker Carlson babbles on about “just asking questions”, “neocons”, “Ukrainian corruption”, “World War III”, “Americans dying”, and “America first”. Laura Ingraham joins the chorus. What are they really after?

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The normally sensible Mollie Hemingway also seems to practice this form of mental subterfuge when talking about Ukraine. In a recent interview on the Hugh Hewitt show, she incessantly rambled about “knowing the risks” of US support for Ukraine, as if the thought was original to her; nobody but her is aware of it. But everybody intuitively does it when doing simple things like deciding to go to an ATM in crime-ridden LA under DA Gascon or proposing to prick the nose of the CCP with tariffs (they’ve got nukes too).

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What’s up? Two motivations lie buried in the verbiage: they are paralyzed in fear of Russia and have a hankering for a “fortress America” national defense strategy. Goatherders with boxcutters (9/11) proved the latter to be foolish. On the former, I fail to understand the gripping dread of Putin’s nukes over, say, those of Chairman Xi. Tucker, Laura, and Mollie are gung-ho in respect to China and have said so ad nauseam, but can’t bring themselves to support actions to forestall a mauling by a power wishing to resuscitate the Soviet empire on a continent historically beset by world-shattering aggressors. Speaking of spent blood and treasure to put thugs back in the box, recall WWI and WWII?

Hardly does an episode go by without two straw-man choices to bolster the cognitive inanity. Tucker presents the choices as either staying out, completely out, or body bags/nuked American cities. What happened to simply arming our friends? Putin and Xi do it regularly, and American soldiers have paid the price in such disparate places as Syria, Fellujah, and the Hindu-Kush. The Tucker-to-Laura axis’s response would be “no more forever-wars” or run and hide after, as Mollie would have it, tortuously “assessing the risks”.

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The thinking boggles the mind. They are quick to “assess the risks” of a bungled Afghan bugout but have no desire to “assess the risks” of a bludgeoned Ukraine, and possible defeat, as we sit idly by, safe in our “fortress America”.

Which brings to mind another hidden motive: pure cult-of-personality politics. Trump-love could be clouding their eyesight and mind. Biden, who defeated their master, did the Afghan bugout and is at the helm when Putin unleashed his doddering Wehrmacht on the Ukraine. They’re quick to blame Biden’s Afghanistan-appeasement for Putin’s invasion – and they’d be right – while at the same time they hawk appeasement in regards to Ukraine. Putin saw Kabul airport and Xi is watching Ukraine. A failure to stop Putin at the borders of the Ukraine could lead to a failure to stop Xi at the shores of Taiwan. If so, we’ll be really forced into “fortress America”. A self-fulfilled prophecy anyone, one not likely to be satisfying to most Americans?

I wish that they’d get their appeasement angles straight before they blather to us.

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The modern punditry class is a disgrace. Previously, most of the sensible among us had no recourse in legacy media. The networks, CNN, MSNBC, NYT, WaPo, AP are mostly lefty propaganda organs. Now, it turns out, the primetime lineup on Fox News can’t be trusted. All of them prove that human fallibility is evident everywhere and academic degrees, party registration, ideology, race, gender, age, and telegenic qualities accord no fix. Fact.

Really, Tucker, Laura, and Mollie, tell us what actually lurks behind your wordiness. If it’s abject fear of Putin, say it. If it’s a sincere belief in the veracity of Russian propaganda, say it. If it’s a derivative of knee-jerk Trump-love, say it. If it’s an undying faith in oceans as our best defense, say it. If it’s a secret admiration of Putin as a fellow nationalist-populist, say it. If it’s the fright of “forever wars” trumping all other thoughts, say it. And, by all means, cut the crap.

RogerG