Allan Greenspan, Fed chairman, in a 1996 speech spoke of “irrational exuberance” when referring to the bull market of the 1990s. He said, “How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions … ?” What is true of asset markets can be equally true of the aftermath of elections.
I voted for Trump, mostly because the Democrats have made themselves toxic to civil order. I voted against the Democrats by voting for Trump. How many other Trump voters made the same calculation? Yet, Trump enthusiasts are in ecstasy over his victory calling it “historic”, “a blowout”, “a mandate”, “a landslide”. Was it? No, an emphatic no.
Start off with the popular vote. He won the national total vote . . . by 1.5%, a first for a Republican since George W. Bush, but not a landslide.
Secondly, as I’ve stated before, the guy has never shown any coattails. If he’s so popular, why are the results so lackluster down ballot, such as in the House and Senate? Looking at the Senate, in a map favorable for Republicans, they only managed to flip four seats: West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana. W.V., Montana, and Ohio were gimmes, all deeply red from the get-go. Penn. was the only contestable race. In the other swing states that Trump won, the Democrat carried the day in the Senate race.
In the House, the Republican majority fell from 222 after the 2022 elections to 220 in 2024. It was basically a wash.
More comparisons are necessary to get a fuller picture. I would classify the 2024 election as a change-of-course election like the one in 1980. In both periods, the Democrats were popularly accused of making a real hash of things. A case could be made that Reagan had coattails in 1980. The Republicans flipped 12 seats in the Senate that year. And Trump boosters are cooing over four.
The favorability ratings of Trump aren’t encouraging. Trump has always carried with him a rather high detestability factor. In a good year during his first term, his favorability still hovered around 40%. In the afterglow of this so-called “landslide”, it jumped to between 47% to 55% (see #1-#2). Some polls still show him underwater.
What of other presidents? Reagan entered the White House with a 67% to 73% approval rating depending on the poll. Bill Clinton enjoyed a 58% favorability upon his election in 1992. It sunk to 40% in his first term but recovered to around 60% throughout much of his second. As for Trump, most polls today show him at around 50% as he approaches his second inaugural.
The gushing Trump boosterism in the afterglow of victory has caused some enthusiasts to lean way over their skis. It’ll lead to great disappointment if Trump and his followers start believing their own rhetoric. The ancient Greeks described this susceptibility of victory turning into failure in the Hubris → Atis → Nemesis → Tisis cycle. Succinctly put, success leads to pride, pride leads to overconfidence, and overconfidence sets up your doom.
In a triumphal parade in Rome for a Roman general, a slave would stand behind the conquering hero in his chariot and whisper, “Remember, you are mortal.” Trump and company need someone to remind them.
RogerG
Sources:
1. FiveThirtyEight’s latest update of polls as of 12/17/2024 at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
2. An Emerson poll for 12/17/2024 reported a Trump favorability of 55%, at https://nypost.com/2024/11/26/us-news/donald-trumps-favorability-jumps-to-post-election-high-while-president-bidens-slips-to-four-year-low/