Just watched Chris Wallace’s interview of presidential adviser Stephen Miller on Fox News Sunday. Wallace pressed Miller with numbers as “facts” to contradict the claim of an emergency on the southern border. They are facts-as-numbers, not facts-supporting-the-conclusion. The rhetorical hocus pocus plagues the immigration debate so much that it’s hard to think straight on the subject.
About the “facts”: they are numbers produced by a formula. The formula is overly reliant on tabulations at 48 border crossings along the 1,954 miles of the US/Mexico border because that’s where the bulk of counters are located. Border crossers are channeled and monitored there to profoundly influence whatever sum total happens to result. The vast voids between will contribute very little due to the emptiness.
It’s like limiting the threats to life and property to the number of reports making their way to the DA’s desk. The number is shaped by public perceptions of law enforcement’s effectiveness, personnel, bureaucratic behavior, social norms, and political will. See, there’s more to the number than the number.
Conclusions about “no emergency” are leaps and bounds beyond what the numbers can support. The presence of anywhere from 11 million to 21 million illegals should tell you something. The huge range means that we don’t know, and if we did, that would imply the complicity of government officials to allow illegal entry so illegals could be counted. Absurd … I think.
The reality should instill some humility, but it doesn’t. The battle of the numbers becomes the battle of tomfoolery.
RogerG