Today’s hot question: Are we in a recession? My gut says “yes”; and if not, we’re on the cusp.
One thing needs to be made clear, though. Rational cognitive activity in an election year is as common as “father’s milk” – which, by the way, is seriously presented by some as something other than an oxymoron. After all, this formulation alongside menstruating and pregnant men became artificial possibilities once partisan hucksters succeeded in rhetorically establishing a wall of separation between gender and chromosomes. Do you think that the rest of the language will escape the mutilation?
Yesterday, the demigods of the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced a .9% decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter (April to June) to go along with the 1.6% fall in the first. Two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, a widely accepted marker for a recession by many who are denying it today. Magically, legacy media has discovered a complex answer because . . . it suits their biases. In 1991, when it was George H.W. Bush, an R, in the dock for a slight dip, the “two consecutive” was all the craze. And we got the sex addict Bill Clinton. Ditto for 2008 with W, another R. And we got the Alinsky protégé Barack Obama. It seems that the recession definition is fungible to the advantage of only one side.
Now, the near-octogenarian Biden, a Democrat, is at the Resolute desk and they’ve discovered “it’s more complicated”. Economist Brian Westbury, no shill of the Left, generally agrees with the complicated explanation. It’s a basket of indices that show a decline in business activity. The GDP numbers are only one part of the picture. The GDP numbers could take a dip if the trade deficit rose; they are subtracted from the general production number. Of course, the trade deficit is just one component of the more significant balance of payments. GDP could fall if consumers coming out of a pandemic lockdown with savings and government debit cards go on a spending splurge, which they did in a binge for all those imported goods from China and other exotic ports of call.
Where does that leave us? Still, in a recession, or awfully close. Bluntly put, it just feels bad. Supply chain problems are still not cured. Climate-change zealotry is still rolling out in executive orders and administrative agencies while playing havoc with utility bills. The war on fossil fuels is rupturing family and business budgets. Rents are skyrocketing. People not living in the Hamptons, Martha’s Vineyard, or Malibu, nor able to fly first class, are battered from so many different directions. There is no recession for those who regularly view the country from 35,000 feet.
There is a recession for the moms and dads feeling the pinch of today’s milk prices. For anyone not named Warren Buffett, who’s in a mood to upgrade the kitchen stove? A recession is a broad attitude to hunker down. The Democrats came into power in 2021 with a whip to regulate, ban, and tax their way to their nirvana. That means that they don’t like you. They don’t like the idea of you having a 1,500 square foot suburban ranch house with air conditioning. They have many more “don’t likes”: that you might be white and/or male, that you might own an SUV, that you have a problem with vandals and own a gun, your “heteronormativity”, that you might actually want your children to learn the 3 r’s and to love their country in school, that a family bar-b-cue in your fenced back yard is a cherished moment. Looking around you, after all that’s happened under their watch, what’s there to look forward to? Who’s in a mood to be upbeat and work and spend like it? This isn’t “Morning in America”; it’s the world of Mad Max.
Welcome to the recession, or the onset, and I don’t care much about the musings of the chattering classes on the matter. They sacrificed their credibility long ago.
RogerG