I’ve written on this topic before, the subject of EV’s, and so has the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and US New and World Report (USNWP). Today, electric vehicles and the central planning of the Green New Deal are tied at the hip in the policy debate. You can’t have one without the other.
But the error that is central planning will remain with us, not washed clean by the save-the-planet hot air. The recurring problem with central planning – i.e., government running the economic show – lies in Hayek’s knowledge problem: humans are flawed and a small group of them can’t possess the requisite knowledge to make the zillions of decisions in an everyday economy. But the situation gets worse when we realize that we aren’t producing the “best and brightest” to occupy the commanding heights of public service and culture. Veritable dunces dominate both the policy and discussion.
I suspect that most of the blame for this sad state of affairs must be placed on our schools, with much of it belonging to our colleges. Logic is thrown out the window. Highly contentious propositions are taught as maxims, or ultimate truths, so much so that any possible debate in the classroom is cut off at the knees. “Systemic” racism, the absolute determinism of self-proclaimed identity, all-pervasive group oppression, and the reduction of meteorology and climate science to ideological slogans are rampantly presented as truisms. No wonder, upon graduation, these minions couldn’t argue their way out of paper cuffs.
If, heaven forbid, they should ever have to appear before a microphone, they are reduced to mumbling incoherencies. As such, beware of politicians who preface their remarks with “all experts agree”. Chances are, it isn’t true. But it’s an easy rhetorical handle to push something that they don’t really understand. It’s a favorite when they have to talk about economics, “climate change”, or Covid restrictions.
The push for electric vehicles is another one of those fad-thoughts that can’t withstand cross-examination. Just think, your recent model Toyota Corolla in your garage – the one that is nearly paid off and gets 40 mpg – must be ushered to the junk pile for – what? – a cramped four-wheeled runabout of limited range or a near mortgage-priced Tesla – all of which will irreparably alter what it means to drive to grandma’s house for Thanksgiving.
Soviet-style apparatchiks – increasingly common in Democrat administrations – are famous for five-year plans. Biden announced an eight-year one: half of all vehicles sold in the US will be “zero emissions” by 2030. It’s easy to announce, and a horror if implemented.
How so? For one, we’ll become dependent on the ChiComs for either those “righteous” batteries or their manufacturing materials like nickel and lithium. Mining the stuff in America is a difficult proposition since the same enviros who extol the virtues of zero emissions also hate mining. We have restricted ourselves to one mine each for nickel and lithium (Silver Peak Mine, Nv.). The internal contradiction of Biden’s proclamation alongside zealous nature-preservation translates into an unintelligible policy goulash.
Compound the above with the monumental difficulties in keeping the thing charged. Where to charge? At home and/or on the road? If at home, it’ll take from 45 minutes for an 80% charge (fast charge) to 3-4 days (level 1 charge), depending on whether or not you want to do the equivalent of a home remodel to install the essential circuitry.
Charging is further impacted by how hot or cold the ambient temperature and the things are. Colder takes longer.
If on the road, who knows what you’ll face. One recent survey showed that 25% of the current charging stations were inoperable. And be prepared, if you find a functioning one, for a 45-minute wait (fast charge) or an overnight stay (10 hours) if sufficient terminals are available at a level 2 facility, which most are. And bear in mind, California and a host of blue states are busy deconstructing their grids. Unstable grids mean unstable charging, possibly ending up empty on the side of the road, and hopefully not in the dead of winter in a raging polar vortex.
Hypothermia from a dead battery is not as farfetched as you think. Apparently, a byproduct of “sustainable” electricity grids is blackouts. Someone could make quite a name for themselves by correlating an increased reliance on “renewables” and an uptick in blackouts. Some numbers are trickling in to bolster the relationship. In one study, outages went from 24 in 2000 to 180 in 2020.
Blackouts are one outcome in a system that is by nature erratic, as wind and solar are. So, realistically, production can meet 100% of demand in one brief moment to chronically falling below it to everything going dark. Once we begin to notice that the only lights are coming from vehicles, and the surrounding area is as dark as northern Chile’s remote Atacama Desert, it’s panic time in our Nissan Leaf on “empty”.
Let’s face it, the contraption can only appeal to those who plan to never leave the metropolis. It’s an artifact of cities, like the Acela train or subways. It’s easy to envision if your commute is ten miles or a few miles down the road to the soccer fields . . . except when you come back to reality trying to plan for the holidays or a family vacation to a national park.
And, so, we are expected to take the plunge for what, the delusion that American commuters are the principal cause of warming temperatures and not the rest of the world’s discovery of a life above grinding poverty and dirt floors? Air conditioning, after all, is a godsend to the Third World and they want more of it.
Pardon me, broad electrification of transportation is lunacy. Like most unhinged manias, it’ll have to be imposed or we’ll have to be bribed into the things with other people’s money. Fact is, it won’t be other people’s money but magically pulled out of the ether, which means inflation, the hidden tax, and an erosion of personal wealth. In the end, we’ll just be poorer and face enormously disrupted lives . . . for no good reason.
Welcome to the Biden edition of central planning’s nightmare.
RogerG
*Thanks to Andrew Stuttaford for important insights.