It won’t shock you that I’m not a Trump fan. Still, I’m trying to be dispassionate in looking at the state of our politics. Much of what we hear, read, and watch resembles the fog of war, a noisy racket that only clouds our perceptions. Much escapes our view, including how many voters will stay home or not even vote on the ballot’s presidential line, due to the prospect of a Trump-Biden rematch being too disheartening. We get the superficial horse race numbers, but what of this factor, one that could have a big impact on the race?
It’s important for a Republican to ask, how many Republican and Republican-leaning voters will disappear from the total presidential vote, leaving aside the question of the level of Democrat fealty to a doddering Joe Biden? How much of the Republican base and its normal allies are turned off by a Trump with a third bite at the apple? One can find very little in the media hubbub.
However, there are hints of trouble ahead for a Trump GOP. Elections are contests of coalitions of voters, of the party bases, independents, right-leaning Democrats for the GOP, and all sorts of demographic subgroups. Hopefully, your collection will outnumber the opposition in enough states. Now in this election cycle, add these groups: the stay-at-homes and the decline-to-states.
Dissatisfaction abounds regarding a second Trump-Biden face-off this time around. In a late January Reuters/Ipsos poll (see #1 below), half expressed a disappointment in the two-party system; only a quarter was satisfied. A third of Republicans said that Trump shouldn’t run. 59% of Biden supporters described theirs was a vote against Trump, not an endorsement for Biden. Conversely, the cult factor in the Trump coalition is reflected in the lesser number of 39% of Trump supporters who stated that their choice would be a vote against Biden. Trump swells the ranks of those who find him repulsive. On the Trump legal front, 20% of Republicans have serious doubts about his claims of innocence, and 55% of Republicans leave open the possibility of him deserving of conviction, something that could weigh heavy on his candidacy.
Then, what will Haley voters do if Trump is the nominee, which now seems to be a sure thing? Her following is a mixture of those who see her as the last remaining obstacle to Trump’s glide path to the nomination: a collection of primary fence-jumpers by Democrats and independents, Reaganite free-marketeers, and those who possess a strong distaste for Trump’s influence on the party. Ferreting out the getable votes for Trump in Haley’s coalition is difficult to discern. The big question is, what will voters do once the decks are cleared for the two towering nominees?
We get another hint in the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll just before the Iowa caucuses. 43% of Haley backers said that they’ll vote for Biden in the fall. How many of that number were never really open to the GOP to begin with? It’s hard to say, but it does point to trouble for Trump and the GOP down the way.
Trump’s problem is unity because long ago he typecast himself as a sour provocateur. He will lower the level of bombast, and already has, in the runup to the general election, but the moderation will have less effect, this being his third time around the block. He’s a known quantity. He’s got a packed graveyard of friends and foes alike who were sullied in relationship to him. Hackneyed blarney like “establishment” that are mindlessly scatter-gunned at anyone in his way won’t hide the repellant nature of his stage persona. Humiliating subservience isn’t a path to party unity.
Sure, Biden has his own problems. The looney left, his senescence, and his own dreadful actions and policies will cause him fits. But Biden’s best political asset is Trump, and the Trump fever engulfing the GOP . . . again. This might be a race that was decided by who turned off the most voters. Trump could have the edge in the repugnancy factor.
I’m with voter Sean Van Anglen, a New Hampshire Republican who previously voted twice for Trump, when he stated his desire to leave the presidential line on the ballot unmarked if Trump is the party’s nominee. He said,
“I don’t think I can vote for Trump. I vote in every election. I’ve never left a box blank. And I might have to this time.” (see #2 below)
RogerG
Sources:
1. “Trump vs. Biden: The rematch many Americans don’t want”, Jason Lange, Reuters, 1/25/2024, at https://www.reuters.com/world/us/americans-dismayed-by-biden-trump-2024-rematch-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-01-25/
2. “Donald Trump has a big problem ahead”, Sam Stein and Nataly Allison, Politico, 1/23/2024, at https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112
3. The Des Moines Register/NBC News. Mediacom poll, taken from Jan. 7-12, 2024, at https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24360792-iowa-poll-trump-vote